6/13: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
The SPX has continued its routine Thursday/Friday rally, with the market rallying 80+ points on Thursday. This trend has been observed for the past 4 weeks, and it is expected that this week may be the last time we see it due to the upcoming CPI and FOMC events. Yesterday was another straightforward trend day, with a classic trend day in play. Today is CPI day, and as long-time readers know, these days can be volatile, unpredictable, and filled with traps.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
CPI inflation declines, printing inline to lower than expectations.
Key Structures
The 4285-75 zone, representing the February 2023 highs and the May "double top". This is the most recent "breakout zone" and is the zone bulls will want to defend on any sells.
The white rising channel, which has been the core uptrend channel from the March low. Support is now 4230-35, and resistance is 4450.
The 4366-68 level, which is the most recent high we broke out from yesterday and is now support.
Support Levels
4366 (major), 4357, 4345 (major), 4338, 4328, 4314-17 (major), 4298, 4286 (major), 4277, 4263 (major), 4247-50, 4230-35 (major), 4209-11 (major), 4192, 4176 (major), 4165, 4158, 4140-42 (major), 4125, 4115, 4100-05 (major), 4085-90 (major), 4068, 4053 (major)
Resistance Levels
4380-85 (major), 4390, 4405 (major), 4416, 4426-30 (major), 4437, 4452 (major), 4472, 4495-4500 (major), 4515, 4525-30 (major), 4540, 4565-70 (major), 4589, 4613, 4635 (major)
Trading Plan
Bulls: 4416, 4425-30 in play next.
Bears: 4380 fails, we see 4366, then 4344
Since it is CPI day, it is advised to be cautious about bidding levels directly and wait for failed breakdowns for any long entries. 4366 is the first support down, but for CPI, it's safer to wait for it to flush then recover. If the channel fails, it would not be surprising to see ES test 4085, but as always, take it level by level and one intraday trade at a time.
Wrap Up
With the CPI and upcoming FOMC events, the market is expected to be volatile and unpredictable. It is important to size down, not over-trade, and watch for failed breakdowns. Be prepared for anything and trade cautiously during these challenging sessions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The SPX has continued its routine Thursday/Friday rally, with the market rallying 80+ points on Thursday. This trend has been observed for the past 4 weeks, and it is expected that this week may be the last time we see it due to the upcoming CPI and FOMC events. Yesterday was another straightforward trend day, with a classic trend day in play. Today is CPI day, and as long-time readers know, these days can be volatile, unpredictable, and filled with traps.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
CPI inflation declines, printing inline to lower than expectations.
Key Structures
The 4285-75 zone, representing the February 2023 highs and the May "double top". This is the most recent "breakout zone" and is the zone bulls will want to defend on any sells.
The white rising channel, which has been the core uptrend channel from the March low. Support is now 4230-35, and resistance is 4450.
The 4366-68 level, which is the most recent high we broke out from yesterday and is now support.
Support Levels
4366 (major), 4357, 4345 (major), 4338, 4328, 4314-17 (major), 4298, 4286 (major), 4277, 4263 (major), 4247-50, 4230-35 (major), 4209-11 (major), 4192, 4176 (major), 4165, 4158, 4140-42 (major), 4125, 4115, 4100-05 (major), 4085-90 (major), 4068, 4053 (major)
Resistance Levels
4380-85 (major), 4390, 4405 (major), 4416, 4426-30 (major), 4437, 4452 (major), 4472, 4495-4500 (major), 4515, 4525-30 (major), 4540, 4565-70 (major), 4589, 4613, 4635 (major)
Trading Plan
Bulls: 4416, 4425-30 in play next.
Bears: 4380 fails, we see 4366, then 4344
Since it is CPI day, it is advised to be cautious about bidding levels directly and wait for failed breakdowns for any long entries. 4366 is the first support down, but for CPI, it's safer to wait for it to flush then recover. If the channel fails, it would not be surprising to see ES test 4085, but as always, take it level by level and one intraday trade at a time.
Wrap Up
With the CPI and upcoming FOMC events, the market is expected to be volatile and unpredictable. It is important to size down, not over-trade, and watch for failed breakdowns. Be prepared for anything and trade cautiously during these challenging sessions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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