News & Event Map (ET)
• 06:00 NFIB Small-Business Optimism (Sept).
• 08:45 Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman remarks.
• 12:20 Fed Chair Powell keynote.
• Mid-day U.S. T-bill auctions (6-wk, 13-/26-wk close mid-day).
• Backdrop: Fresh U.S.–China port fee headlines add a macro risk-off/risk-on toggle.
• Earnings: Early-season, light but picking up (e.g., Bank OZK, ESLT, NEWT).
Read: plan London 02:00–05:00, NY AM 09:30–11:00, PM 13:30–16:00. Avoid initiating during Powell’s window unless already risk-reduced.
For overnight London session:
1) A Bounce (Tier-3) — Long from 6,661–6,672 (only on exhaustion + reclaim)
• Trigger: Flush into the band → 1m reclaim → 5m up-close.
• Invalidation/SL: Below 6,653.
• TP1: 6,689–6,692 (take 70%, runner BE).
• TP2: 6,706–6,710.
• Note: If the stop required to the 15m wick makes TP1 < 2R, skip.
2) Reclaim-Fail Short (Tier-1 quality) — Short on 6,689–6,692 retest-fail
• Trigger: Pop back into 6,689–6,692, 15m can’t hold above, 5m rolls over; 1m LH entry.
• SL: Above 6,696–6,698.
• TP1: 6,672 → 6,666.
• TP2: 6,661.
• Stretch: 6,640–6,650 if momentum persists.
3) Breakdown Continuation (Tier-1) — Short on 15m acceptance below 6,661
• Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,661, then 5m retest holds below.
• SL: Back above 6,666–6,668.
• TP1: 6,640–6,650.
• TP2: Trail for a bleed toward mid-650s if tape stays heavy.
For NY session:
Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Short at 6,718–6,725
• Trigger (Rejection-Fade): 15m close back below 6,718 after a wick through; 5m re-close lower with LH; 1m first pullback entry.
• SL: Above 6,730 (±0.25–0.50).
• TP1: 6,689–6,692 (close 70% → runner BE).
• TP2: 6,661–6,672.
• TP3: 6,645–6,650.
• Invalidation: 15m full-body acceptance ≥6,725 (don’t fade; flip to the long continuation play).
Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Long continuation on 6,725+ acceptance
• Trigger (Acceptance-Go): 15m full-body close ≥6,725 → 5m pullback holds 6,718–6,721 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry.
• SL: Below 6,712 (±0.25–0.50).
• TP1: 6,735–6,745.
• TP2: 6,760 area.
• TP3: 6,780 stretch.
• Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,718 after entry.
Tier-2 A+ Bounce — Quick-reclaim long at 6,689–6,692
• Trigger: Sweep/flush into the band, instant reclaim on 1m → 5m up-close.
• SL: Below 6,682.
• TP1: 6,707–6,710.
• TP2: 6,718–6,725.
• TP3: 6,735.
• Size: ¾ standard.
Tier-3 A Bounce — Exhaustion flush long at 6,661–6,672
• Trigger: Capitulation wick + 5m bullish re-close from the band.
• SL: 6,653.
• TP1: 6,689–6,692.
• TP2: 6,706–6,710.
• TP3: 6,718.
• Size: ½ standard.
PA projections:
Market Analysis: London to New York Trading Session
London Session (02:00–05:00)
In the early hours, the base case scenario for the market suggests a modest advance to the 6,661–6,672 range, followed by a brief spike to 6,689–6,692. However, resistance is expected to kick in at this level, potentially leading to a reversal back to 6,672 and down to 6,661. In a bearish scenario, if there is a 15-minute acceptance below 6,661, we may target 6,640–6,650 as potential support levels.
Pre-New York Session (08:00–09:30)
As long as prices remain below 6,689, we anticipate the formation of a lower high beneath 6,700, exerting downward pressure towards 6,661. There is a heightened risk of a flush toward 6,645–6,650 during this period.
New York Morning Session (09:30–11:00)
The bearish sentiment is likely to persist if prices remain under 6,689, with selling opportunities expected towards 6,661 and the 6,645–6,650 range. The momentum in this phase will determine whether we establish a base or continue to decline. Conversely, a bullish alternative may emerge if there is a sustained 15-minute close above 6,689 for 30 to 60 minutes, which could pivot the market towards a buying strategy, targeting 6,706–6,710 and possibly testing 6,718–6,725. A decisive move above 6,725 would shift the focus to 6,735–6,745.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario: A successful flip to bullish sentiment would require two consecutive 15-minute closes above 6,689, with pullbacks holding at this level.
Bearish Confirmation: A bearish confirmation would manifest through a 15-minute full-body close below 6,661, followed by a failed retest from below.
Conclusion: The outlook remains inherently biased towards a sell-rallies strategy throughout the trading day from London into New York, as long as prices stay below 6,689. A recovery and sustained hold above this threshold would redirect attention to tests of 6,706 and 6,718.
• 06:00 NFIB Small-Business Optimism (Sept).
• 08:45 Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman remarks.
• 12:20 Fed Chair Powell keynote.
• Mid-day U.S. T-bill auctions (6-wk, 13-/26-wk close mid-day).
• Backdrop: Fresh U.S.–China port fee headlines add a macro risk-off/risk-on toggle.
• Earnings: Early-season, light but picking up (e.g., Bank OZK, ESLT, NEWT).
Read: plan London 02:00–05:00, NY AM 09:30–11:00, PM 13:30–16:00. Avoid initiating during Powell’s window unless already risk-reduced.
For overnight London session:
1) A Bounce (Tier-3) — Long from 6,661–6,672 (only on exhaustion + reclaim)
• Trigger: Flush into the band → 1m reclaim → 5m up-close.
• Invalidation/SL: Below 6,653.
• TP1: 6,689–6,692 (take 70%, runner BE).
• TP2: 6,706–6,710.
• Note: If the stop required to the 15m wick makes TP1 < 2R, skip.
2) Reclaim-Fail Short (Tier-1 quality) — Short on 6,689–6,692 retest-fail
• Trigger: Pop back into 6,689–6,692, 15m can’t hold above, 5m rolls over; 1m LH entry.
• SL: Above 6,696–6,698.
• TP1: 6,672 → 6,666.
• TP2: 6,661.
• Stretch: 6,640–6,650 if momentum persists.
3) Breakdown Continuation (Tier-1) — Short on 15m acceptance below 6,661
• Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,661, then 5m retest holds below.
• SL: Back above 6,666–6,668.
• TP1: 6,640–6,650.
• TP2: Trail for a bleed toward mid-650s if tape stays heavy.
For NY session:
Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Short at 6,718–6,725
• Trigger (Rejection-Fade): 15m close back below 6,718 after a wick through; 5m re-close lower with LH; 1m first pullback entry.
• SL: Above 6,730 (±0.25–0.50).
• TP1: 6,689–6,692 (close 70% → runner BE).
• TP2: 6,661–6,672.
• TP3: 6,645–6,650.
• Invalidation: 15m full-body acceptance ≥6,725 (don’t fade; flip to the long continuation play).
Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Long continuation on 6,725+ acceptance
• Trigger (Acceptance-Go): 15m full-body close ≥6,725 → 5m pullback holds 6,718–6,721 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry.
• SL: Below 6,712 (±0.25–0.50).
• TP1: 6,735–6,745.
• TP2: 6,760 area.
• TP3: 6,780 stretch.
• Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,718 after entry.
Tier-2 A+ Bounce — Quick-reclaim long at 6,689–6,692
• Trigger: Sweep/flush into the band, instant reclaim on 1m → 5m up-close.
• SL: Below 6,682.
• TP1: 6,707–6,710.
• TP2: 6,718–6,725.
• TP3: 6,735.
• Size: ¾ standard.
Tier-3 A Bounce — Exhaustion flush long at 6,661–6,672
• Trigger: Capitulation wick + 5m bullish re-close from the band.
• SL: 6,653.
• TP1: 6,689–6,692.
• TP2: 6,706–6,710.
• TP3: 6,718.
• Size: ½ standard.
PA projections:
Market Analysis: London to New York Trading Session
London Session (02:00–05:00)
In the early hours, the base case scenario for the market suggests a modest advance to the 6,661–6,672 range, followed by a brief spike to 6,689–6,692. However, resistance is expected to kick in at this level, potentially leading to a reversal back to 6,672 and down to 6,661. In a bearish scenario, if there is a 15-minute acceptance below 6,661, we may target 6,640–6,650 as potential support levels.
Pre-New York Session (08:00–09:30)
As long as prices remain below 6,689, we anticipate the formation of a lower high beneath 6,700, exerting downward pressure towards 6,661. There is a heightened risk of a flush toward 6,645–6,650 during this period.
New York Morning Session (09:30–11:00)
The bearish sentiment is likely to persist if prices remain under 6,689, with selling opportunities expected towards 6,661 and the 6,645–6,650 range. The momentum in this phase will determine whether we establish a base or continue to decline. Conversely, a bullish alternative may emerge if there is a sustained 15-minute close above 6,689 for 30 to 60 minutes, which could pivot the market towards a buying strategy, targeting 6,706–6,710 and possibly testing 6,718–6,725. A decisive move above 6,725 would shift the focus to 6,735–6,745.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario: A successful flip to bullish sentiment would require two consecutive 15-minute closes above 6,689, with pullbacks holding at this level.
Bearish Confirmation: A bearish confirmation would manifest through a 15-minute full-body close below 6,661, followed by a failed retest from below.
Conclusion: The outlook remains inherently biased towards a sell-rallies strategy throughout the trading day from London into New York, as long as prices stay below 6,689. A recovery and sustained hold above this threshold would redirect attention to tests of 6,706 and 6,718.
If you want to contact me Email: info@algoindex.com or algoindex.com
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If you want to contact me Email: info@algoindex.com or algoindex.com
相關出版品
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。