Rationale for going long on the slow-trailing altcoins

2017年5月9日

For many applications (e.g. "social" coins, distributed exchanges, anonymity-focused coins) there are currently multiple, competing crypto coin or tokens.

I generally believe it is a bad idea to buy the smaller pair of any related/similar/forked crypto pair.
* They could quickly lose relevance if one of them "takes over" the respective market.
* They are generally those with less dev funding and easier to completely nuke themselves out (due to bad Press, bugs, failure to complete milestones).
* In extreme cases, low volume / impending delisting from important exchanges (note how my analysis only works that well for poloniex) completely overshadows these patterns.

One exception for still trading these:
If pairs have been observed to behave the same way for quite some while (bad: measured in time, better: measured in number of BTCUSD breakouts), then the decision is much easier.

I am watching the following sample coins/tokens to test my idea:
ETC (extensive script language), Bitshares (distributed exchange), Synero (social), ZCash (anonymity), RubyCoin/Lisk (alternate implementations, though possibly ETH already killed that unique selling point)

2017年6月14日

交易結束：目標達成

While it was certainly possible through keeping it "within days", i waited too long for +200%.

The future for etc appears less clear; the graph for (among others) Synero just fits much better, so by the time the next big BTCUSD breakout happens, i want to be out of ethereum territory.