jamey5k

Etherium Classic ETC/BTC trending with LUNAR CYCLES! :)

POLONIEX:ETCBTC   古典以太坊 / 比特幣
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It has been disappointing to see the ETC/BTC pair dropping before the Castillo airdrop, and looking at the pattern ETC has had, some further drops are likely to the bottom of the red dotted lines. MACD and RSI have been fluctuating, but drifting upward.

Just for fun I did the "Moon Phase" analysis, and in this most recent cycle, it seems like ETC falls after a full moon , and then steadily rises after a full moon (not sure why TV's default for a "new moon" is white and a "full moon" is dark). I personally don't think the lunar phase is affecting the price, but rather that this just seems to coincide with the general trend. The good and bad news it new full moon is today, so expect a few more days of dropping to then be met by a reversal. The lag on the daily before seems to start going up is 4-5 days afterward, and it peaks on the daily 1-2 days before the new moon . So, if this moon a bottom of around 265 on March 6-7, and a top around 491 around March 15-16.

Once again, I am not claiming the lunar cycle is what is affecting the price, but rather that the exact same pattern has occurred the past three lunar cycles. Will it happen a fourth time within this general upward trend on the daily??

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT OR ASTRONOMY ADVICE!!!
評論: Hopefully it is clear from the chart and the comment I put below it on March 2, but I just realized the typo above. It should read "it seems like ETC falls after a NEW moon , and then steadily rises after a FULL moon." The FULL moon was just a few days ago (On March 2), and as stated above, IF THE PATTERN HOLDS, we should have our bottom right after that. The previous pattern had a few day lag from the full moon, which is how I arrived at the March 6-7 date for a bottom. So, the question is will we bottom in the next 24 hours, or did the Castillo airdrop give us the bottom a bit early.

Note that we reached ~0.002300 on January 16, and bounced off of that, and this is similar to where we hit this time. In late December, that seemed to be a point of resistance. That area tended to be one of resistance and then support back in November also. So, consistently staying above that on the daily candles closes seems to be important for this pattern.

Also, note that volume tends to increase following the full moon, and decrease following the new moon (as a VERY general trend), but has been steadily decreasing.

The gradual selloff may indeed be related to the airdrop - people being afraid about a massive selloff afterwards may not have wanted to buy, due to fear of being burned quickly. So, now that the airdrop has passed and the fear of a rapid dump should be diminished, maybe there will be some more enthusiasm for buying this coin... especially if Bitcoin stabilizes for a bit.

Regardless, IF THE PATTERN CONTINUES as it has for the past three moon cycles, we should still expect to see a high in the next 10-12 days.

Once again, this is not investment advice, nor is it a "cause and effect" idea, but rather a pattern analysis. We are looking for repeatable patterns, and this pattern has repeated itself consistently in the past three lunar cycles.

Let's see what happens in the next 10-12 days.
評論: We have another 4-5days to see if ETC continues to follow this moon pattern. It broke well below the previous trendline, and things aren't looking good for that trend in terms of MACD and RSI. But 4-5 days in the crypto world are a long time. In the most recent cycle, it went from about 0.0024 to 0.0041 in about 6 days. Perhaps we will start to see the rise in the next few days followed by one large burst by our target date of March 16... or perhaps we'll see nothing and the trend will be broken. Looks like we need to get through the end of the week to see if this pattern continues to repeat - for anybody long on ETC, hopefully it will!
Now it gets interesting - will this pattern hold? ETC sunk to 0.002557, which was below the rough trend line on the chart. The chart is a daily, and some of the lower wicks do go below it. It has had a nice little bounce so far, but its way early to see if that bounce succeeds or if it continues to drop like a meteorite burning up in the atmosphere (sure, let's keep some astronomy stuff going on this lunar chart). If the pattern holds, this is a bit earlier than expected, but also don't be surprised to see some wicks drop to or slightly below my rough trend line in the coming days.

If the pattern stays true, a target >0.0045 is achievable in the next 14 days or so if the trend continues.

Again, not saying the moon is causing this pattern (and I looked at a few other altcoins and didn't see any such patterns), but perhaps ETC's cycle closely (though not perfectly) corresponds to moon phases.

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!
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