Today I will spend less time on TA. As you can see from the chart, it’s simply a bear flag in which everybody can tell from the chart easily. What I would like to tell you however, whether you believe it or not, is “Cartel Analysis”. I thought you might find it interesting.
Did you notice something about the huge pump yesterday? After I said it’s about to drop because of the double top, it shoot up like if there is no resistance. But did you see how much up did ETH continue to go up after it went above the double top? Just right over 3%! What does this imply? It means that the break above the double top was a pure manipulation to squeeze out the short positions. And I believe most of the short positions has got squeezed out (except those ones that opened the short positions very early on/strong hands).
When you thought that the price was going to continue to go up to $440-450 as that will be the next resistance, BOOM!! It dropped so rapidly that many couldn’t even react to the drop. Even if you want to re-open another short position, it was already too late to short - the price was already at around $400. You then start to think because of the huge sell off, ETH will likely to continue to go down. So, you opened a short position @ around $395 - 400. Then what happened? The price starts to climb up again and even above your buy-in price. Weak hands start to get shaken out, thinking – “will the price shoot up again to $430? That’s too risky. Maybe I’ll close my short positions and wait for confirmation”
Not many traders are dare to open their short positions now. They want to wait for confirmation. And that’s exactly what the Cartel wants you to think. They don’t want you to make money. If ETH does break out the bear flag to the downside, I believe it will happen in an instant.
But please keep this in mind, it CAN still shoot up to $430 again, although I doubt it will.
Btw, this is purely my speculation. If you don’t like it, that’s fine, just pretend that you didn’t see my post. But if you do like it, please give it a like :)
Taiwan Bear
****************************************************************************************** Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Some tips for you: - Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+) - Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
評論
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The bear flag has been extended, but still within the bear flag.
@vinny401, It has hit $820. See if there is a ABC wave correction. If it does, sell at the top of wave B
camelot0212
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Broke out bear flag formation. You still bearish on this one?
Acel
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Bear is too mainstream now. Sorry friend, you had your highlight. Bear action is (almost?) over.
Im taking the rebound for the other side of the coin.
UnknownUnicorn1780802
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@Acel, Volume is a good indicator of trend reversal. I have yet to the the monstrous volume. Volume has been dead.
This is a textbook price up, volume down = bearish
Acel
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@lvg3g, what if i tell you that they dont want you to know and they are accumulating...? But yeah, there is a chance it can have a last drop to 300.
ozcabman
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What is the cartel? This is just how a normal market operates. if you watch any of the major forex pairs you will see stop runs but at the end of the day the players in the market just have a job to do. For example, they may have to buy a large amount of USD at below the current market price. So what do they do? You can call it a cartel or you can just call it a market player doing their job. They are not hunting stops because they want other people to lose.....they are hunting stops because they have to execute their (large) orders at a certain price. Maybe the liquidity is not there at the moment in crypto so price is too sensitive to large orders.
Taiwan_Bear
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@ozcabman, You should read the post that I shared on my Twitter. The news don't just come out exactly on the day that the crash is about to happen from a purely TA perspective. It is all set up. Just like I predicted the crash on SPX, right before it happened. You think that the crash happened because of the news?
There is a good post done by another trader on TV:
Also, for FX, there is a base that you can determine what market price or fair value is. But for Cryptos? There is no underlying assets or any base value that gives clear idea as to what the market price is. There is only resistance and support levels.
Clearly, it was manipulated. But like the post I shared on my Twitter suggested, many people still don't believe it even when it is so apparent that Cartel does exist.