ETHUSD Perspective And Levels:Triangle Breakout? Where's Volume?

2017年8月11日

ETHUSD Update: Triangle unfolds as BTC and other alt coins make higher highs. The fact that price is not breaking below the 279 support is a sign of strength BUT this lack of participation is concerning.

The 306 resistance zone (.618 of bearish swing) seems to have muted the bulls that were pushing this market higher. As a result, a symmetrical triangle has formed which is not unusual for a wave 4 (mentioned in previous report) . These triangles are typically continuation patterns and a breakout to the upside should take this market into the higher part of the resistance zone around the 350s. Somewhere in the 350 to 380 area is where I anticipate the subwave 5 to complete which would also complete the larger degree Wave 3.

My wave count puts the short term target near the upper resistance zone or possibly in the low 400s. Once the broader Wave 3 has completed 5 waves, a larger degree Wave 4 will likely follow. These are the kind of waves the scare everyone one out (Like the one that took this market to 136 low three weeks ago, remember?). I will get more into that when the market provides the appropriate clues.

As of now, we still have upside potential and the event to watch for is the 310 break out to the upside. The first area I would consider for a stop is the 290 level which is in the lower range of the triangle. The risk is 30 points which is reasonable considering the first target is at least 350. RR is slightly higher than 1:1. This kind of breakout with increasing volume is also a welcome sign and should give this market the umph it needs to reach the new highs.

As I mentioned earlier. this lack of participation (and volume) is a concern because BTC and other alt coins are pushing new highs and this market should be following. In the stock market, when a sector rallies, all the stocks in the sector usually get a boost, and ones that do not follow are usually considered weak. As soon as the sector begins to sell, these "relatively weak" stocks are the first ones that everyone targets to sell short. I'm not saying that this market is a short, there is no structure in place to signal anything like that. I am just mentioning the lack of follow through issue, because it is something to keep in mind when buying this breakout.

In summary, this market is in a small consolidation and needs to push 310 to signal further buying. Triangles are considered trend continuation patterns so a breakout should take this price into the next resistance in the 350s to 370s. The problem is BTC is pushing higher while this market is staying quiet. Relatively speaking, not exactly a great sign when considering longs. If price breaks out, it's okay to participate, just always be mindful of your risk and the fact that anything can happen.

Questions and comments welcome.