ETH looks in terrible shape

2018年3月4日

After a mega run up over the new year, ETH has fallen on some hard times.

Right now, ETH is below the daily 20EMA and 50MA; typically this means a move to the 200MA is the next likely target. There are other bearish patterns in the mix as well including a large bear pennant and small bear flag.

The first target for ETH will be ~$600. We should see a large bounce, like it's prior low at the start of Feb. If this fails to hold a target of around $300 is in play, but lets cross that bridge if we get to it.

2018年3月6日

註釋

We've been basically sideways for a couple of days and we are starting to see some sell off due to a pull back in BTC.

We are kind of in no-mans-land at the moment but I'm hoping over the next day or so we get a more decisive move:

2018年3月7日

註釋

We certainly got our decisive move:



Right on track....

2018年3月8日

註釋

Another day of selling

2018年3月11日

註釋

We have gone as low as $640, formed a daily hammer but failed to reverse. We are currently trading at $668, but looking at the TD indicator we have at least 2 more days of downside to come. I believe we have almost exhausted the 78.6 support and we will head to the 200MA (~$600) by tomorrow or Monday (EST).



As I mentioned in the original post, I believe we should see a bounce at the 200MA, but I'm not confident it will be a reversal.

2018年3月14日

註釋

We have hit our first target of the 200MA. Due to how quickly this final level was run, this may not hold for very long. I'll have an update in a few hours once a bit more price data comes in.

2018年3月16日

交易結束：目標達成

I'm going to close out this idea since it hit the original 200MA target of ~$600.

I believe it is going to continue down further because we haven't seen the sizeable bounce we needed, but I will create a new idea to explore it further.

In the meantime, here is the chart as it stands now: a bear pennant with a target of around $480-$520. There's some confluence with the bear flag and pennant which just strengthens the case.

2018年3月17日

註釋

Our bear pennant turned into a bear flag:


Watch for a break down below $580 for confirmation and above $630 for invalidation.

We are just holding onto the daily 200MA, and as I've said before, in a down trend, the longer we stay on support, the more likely we are to break it.



I say we are still on track to break this over the next 24hrs

2018年3月17日

註釋

As I said above, a break would happen in 24hrs, and it certainly did:



And now we are trading below the 1D 200MA.



I think the likely targets are:
1. $450-$480
2. $300

Obviously it won't go there in a straight line, but over the next few weeks I expect the 2nd target to hit unless something miraculous happens.