Bullish Engulfing Candle at the 300WMA or another Bear Pennant?

已更新

Price held with a small but steady bounce right at the 300W MA---a support many Market Markers have been eyeing since the 200W MA was broken in BTCUSD. ETH showed an even stronger interaction with the 300W MA support. As well, we see a Bullish Engulfing Candle at the bounce, which has also appeared in BTCUSD, signalling a reversal. This is a promising signal for Bulls, however, will the volume hold up?

We already see volume declining, indicating this may be a false signal printed by the daily candles. We can see a possible continuation of the Bear Pennant playing out between the 0.765 and 0.618 Fibonacci Bollinger Bands. The strongest fib levels tend to be 0.618, 0.5, and 0.382. With the 0.618 becoming resistance (previously playing support (follow the green arrows on chart)), and above that the 0.5 band (which played resistance in the previous pennant (follow the yellow arrows on chart)), as well as the 50 Day MA (which has played resistance too (follow the yellow line on chart)), we’ll need significant volume to confirm a reversal.

Bear pennants indicate price will continue in trend, so when price breaks above the upper trend line of the pennant/flag formation this typically signals a break in the pattern. A trader may place a stop order at a price in the break-out zone, however, I warn against being caught out in a head fake here for the three reasons mentioned above: 1. Low Volume does not signal a proper reversal at the break, 2. Price is currently trading between the 0.764 and 0.618 levels, with 0.618 being a common level for price to interact with, 3. The 50D MA has rejected the price twice, and trend lines are typically checked at least three times before diminishing their influence. We don’t know if the 50D MA just happens to coincide with the previous two price rejections, but its correlation should not be considered lightly coming into its third check, especially if volume doesn’t peak around that time.

IN SUMMARY:
I would not advise trying to catch a break above the pennant as you might be caught out by a head fake. The 300W MA did not show a confident rejection, which stands to reason it will be tested again.

註釋

Should be noted yesterday's candle will be a bearish Evening Star if today's candle closes red. This will invalidate the Bullish Engulfing candle and indicate to market markers a bear pennant continues to form for now. The 12EMA on the 1D MACD (blue line) will click down too, showing more bear action expected to come.

註釋