ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Higher Low Formation.

2017年10月29日

ETHUSD Update: Consolidation breakout to 310 off of the higher low formed in the 280s. This is a bullish sign and implies further strength, with a reasonable target in the 320s.

I have been long from 298.84 for a number of days, and actually got stopped out of half of my small position after making an adjustment (this is all explained in previous reports). So I am holding onto 15% of my regular position size. And the possibility of this scenario is the reason why I did not exit my entire trade when it was consolidating in the low 290s. On the next retrace and reversal confirmation, I will look to buy back in with the expectation of a target in the 320s or 330s.

This is a tough market and is not one to get overly excited or aggressive about. goldbug1 had it right by buying for the long term which means he would not fall victim to the erratic gyrations that are more and more frequent (check out his other alt trades too, impressive). If you zoom out and look at this market on a daily or weekly time frame, you will see price is right in the middle of a huge consolidation that may very well be a giant Wave 2. Which puts the current price action into perspective.

Any sudden price spikes, especially on low volume such as this one, are to be met with caution. With that being said, the current spike does establish a clear higher low (HL) in the low 290s area which is a bullish sign. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. So this is my justification for adding more to my current position on a retrace that meets 2 criteria: it forms above the 297 to 293 zone (minor .618 of recent bullish swing) AND I get a reversal formation such as a double bottom or pin bar on smaller time frames such as the 30 min to 1 hr respectively.

The reason why I am not painting rockets (besides the fact that I usually don't) is because if you project a price extension off of the higher low, you will see the 1.0 level is just below 330, and the 1.618 is in the 350 area. On top of the resistance zones that are present, and the context of the giant consolidation, this market is not set up to do anything spectacular in the short term in my opinion. Sure a piece of news can spark a move, but if I am going to capitalize on short term fluctuations, I want to at least have a reasonable idea of what my profit potential is, and that is why TA is so helpful. Eventually, if this market breaks above the giant consolidation, it can go up big, which is no where near happening since we are in the middle of the range at the moment, not the highs.

In summary, the current price spike does add more to the bullish argument and provides structure that not only implies further strength, but allows for a reasonable expectation of the 320s as a profit target. As long as the next retrace (if there is one) occurs above 297, I will look to add to my long as per my criteria being met. Don't lose sight of the overall context by taking some time to review larger time frames like the daily or weekly charts. Capitalizing on the constant flow of opportunities in these markets is more about managing risk, not jumping into every move. Profit is a by product of good risk management.

Questions and comments welcome.