The state of crypto and global macro! What's coming next?

已更新

Starting with the USD! In my opinion EM currencies are going to get stronger vs the USD in the next few months. I think that from here USDZAR and USDMXN could drop another 4-5%. That's bullish for the world and most assets. On the other hand people should be careful with their positions as EURUSD is looking extremely weak and USDCNH is about to fill the gap and hit a support combo (Yearly S1 + Monthly S3 + gap + support). USDTRY is going to go much higher as Turkey is facing more and more issues with their debt. GBPUSD is showing some strength here, but is at resistance. In my view GBPUSD will go to 1.40 in the next 1-2 years when all the Brexit nonsense is over. Its chart looks quite a lot like Silver especially when you look at the weekly since 1970s.

For stocks I am getting more bullish, but still not in a position. I still believe NDX could hit 10200-10600 and SPX 3180-3270. The reasons are:
a) correction wasn't large enough. In 1998-1999 NDX fell 13-16% 3 times before going parabolic, b) still below the trendline, c) some double bottoms that are begging to be swept on some contracts, d) cheeky SFP on SPX right at the monthly P, e) several Nasdaq stocks look a bit shaky

For Crypto, most shitcoins are clearly now in a bear market. The first of the three parts of the mega cycle (first mini cycle) has come to an end. Many went up 5-10-50-100-200x and are now going down. We've seen this many times before and it was time for a correction. Most of that money will now probably flow into BTC, especially all the stablecoins that have come onto the market. We already see it as Bitcoin is going up and alts are suffering massively. After 3.5 months of alt season a few months of a downtrend for alts is likely. In my view BTC will probably hit 15-20k by the end of the year no matter how low it goes in September as right not is close to a key resistance zone and going sub 10k again isn't impossible. There are several reasons why I think such a dip is likely but won't go into it now, as all that matters is that if BTC hits 7-8k within the next 3-4 weeks, Q4 is going to be explosive (money flowing back into BTC for alts, stablecoin flood, following S2F / 4 year cycle / 4-5 months post halving with inflation comparable to gold's).

An update on my recent trades/positions. I stupidly got out of my GBPUSD long very quickly after pretty much getting at the bottom. Same with USDMXN from 21.4 to 21.2... I had a BANDUSDT short on which should had been BANDBTC so had to cut it as BTC went up without putting it back on. Just got out of my BTC long from 10650 to 11080. FInally when I saw the SFP on SPX I put a short on with a tight stop at 3420, which I then moved to break even and got stopped out. One key realization is put any positions on as they are technically sound and don't worry much about correlations as long as you aren't overexposed. Mixing positions with opposite correlations might also be benefitical and across different markets. Right now looking for some potential longs on alts vs BTC & BTC shorts in the 11.1-11.5k range, which are short term only and looking to exit near 10.5-10.6

註釋

EURGBP has much lower to go after this imho. Brexit will be a sell the news event (buy the news for GBP).

ETHUSD swept the highs, failed at key resistance and closed below the supply zone... while it hasn't retested 285 or 250. Current weekly closes are pretty weak. Maybe everything goes down and I doubt ETH will get there while BTC goes up.

EURUSD looks pretty bad imho. Is below a key resistance combo and constantly fails at key resistance but not in the *multiple tests* way. This looks like distribution.

Finally another reason I don't like stocks that much other than the double bottoms, is that the 50 DMA was tested twice (price fell below on both SPX and NDX) and that some times ends with a break down. Maybe the fact that it fell below twice was enough to shake out all the people looking at it, but what if many bought because of it and need to be shaken out?

註釋

With Powell's speech things seem to be getting a bit weird and ugly for EURUSD. The rest still look fine, although USD vs EM could also go up before it goes down again after retesting broken support levels. If it reclaims and stays above that's another story.

I am glad I got out of my SPX short at break even as I'd have gotten stopped out even though now it would have gone in my favor. I also got out of my USDMXN & USDZAR shorts, and closed my USDCNH position that had just gotten filled right at support.

Really bad mistake of mine to forget about the Fed speech... Had totally forgotten about it

註釋

BTC got to 11.1k but still looks decent. Much less affected than other markets for sure. So far it looks really strong and could keep pushing higher and higher. Afterall it is undervalued against most other assets like Gold, Silver and US stocks.

US stocks look like they are in trouble, but that's only confirmed if SPX closes below 3400. I'd rather wait for the market to take its time than rush into a position during/after the talk. A few things I forgot to add about to add about SPX, is that in Feb there was a double gap (gap over a gap), that on the way up to 3500 wasn't filled (essentially a triple gap). Also during the drop to 3310 it still wasn't fully filled. Below that there are a few key areas / gaps that also haven't been filled.

Finally for the EURUSD if 1.175 breaks I can't see how it won't get to 1.14-1.15.

註釋

SPX did close below 3400 and there was a dip down to 3320 on the futures. Things don't look great for sure.

EURUSD fell below 1.175 but didn't close below. No matter how I see it things look worse and worse. USDCNH seems to have confirmed a bottom. while EM currencies could pull back significantly. USDMXN especially as it hit key support and USDZAR didn't retest one of its key breakdown levels. Overall I believe EM currencies are a better bet if you are bullish on the world than stocks or other currencies right now.

BTC stopped at 11100. On my other analysis I mentioned that that was the level for profit taking and potential shorts. I stupidly had my short right at 11110 for an unknown reason and is it wasn't filled, I decided at 11000 not to put any shorts on. Recently although I've gotten the direction and targets right, I've failed to put on the right trades. Looks like I have to go back and optimise for that rather than trying to find more trades.

Also people need to remember that many alts are like Bitcoin shorts. Alts as a whole are a way to get more BTC and that's the game. Everything moves based on Bitcoin whether you like it or not. The rise of Tether doesn't mean that much because the way liquidity and interest flows is through the movements of Bitcoin. So when BTC gets at resistance and slows down, alts can have their moments

交易結束：目標達成

Some final notes as this is getting too long and there is no reason to keep adding to it:

USDJPY looks very bearish. Too many tests at support and clearly breaking down.

EURUSD swept the lows again and bounced hard right of the 50 DMA. SPX closed above the 50 DMA on the 4h chart with a nice doji right after going below it. The GBP is trying to form an uptrend but is still stuck between support and resistance.

USDMXN also stuck between S/R but the trend is clearly down. Same for USDZAR. Both have 1-2% max upside and 5-6% downside from here before one can say that the downtrend is broken or that they have bottomed.

Tech stocks clearly suffered yesterday and I still believe that a 5-10 drop is possible from here (I've repeated that several times since NDX first hit 11500). Again by looking at most stock markets globally, this is more of a US correction mainly due to massive stocks being in a frenzy. Essentially every other stock other than Amazon, Apple, Tesla etc is pretty cheap/fairly valued, so they don't have the same potential downside.

For Crypto there was an ETH bounce as ETHBTC was at support and BTCUSD at resistance, plus the massive activity due to Uniswap. ETH is trapped between support and resistance so until I see a close above 400 & 0.0362 I'd remain bearish/neutral.