ETHUSD .382 Support Break Sign of Weakness.

2017年6月30日

ETHUSD has broken 273 (the .382) support from the major bullish trend on the larger time frame (See large red arrow). The bullish trend is still intact in my opinion, but this support break confirms short term bearish momentum. Situations like these are very conflicting since the larger time frame presents a bullish condition while short term selling weighs on this market at the moment. Based on the structure on the 15 minute chart, momentum is now bearish and I would expect selling pressure to push prices lower toward the next major support at the 247 area. As long as price stays below the 280 resistance, it is reasonable to expect lower lows. Two scenarios can happen that will negate this short term bearish outlook. 1) The formation of a broad double bottom in the 274 area (where we are at the time of this writing). 2) A break above the 280 resistance followed by a higher low. Until one or both of these bullish scenarios emerge, I will be watching for price to retrace and hold the 247 support. From there I will reevaluate and look for bullish reversals. I am not a big fan of shorting a market that is generally strong, I like to stack probabilities in my favor. My preference is to stay flat and wait for bullish momentum to return. Let's see how this plays out. Stay tuned for my next update.