EURAUD – Bearish Flag Breakdown Opportunity

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The EURAUD pair is showing signs of trend continuation via a classic bearish flag pattern formation. After a sharp decline, the market has entered into a tight consolidation channel, climbing steadily inside a sloped flag structure. Price is now testing a critical resistance area near 1.7830–1.7840 while hovering just below the 200 EMA.
This setup offers a high-probability sell opportunity — but only after confirmation.

1. Structure Overview

• The initial sharp downtrend is followed by a consolidation channel — a textbook bearish flag.
  
• Price is approaching major resistance (1.7830–1.7840) and 200 EMA, acting as a ceiling.
  
• A breakdown from the rising support of the flag is expected to trigger a continuation toward the downside.
  

2. Trade Plan – Bearish Flag Breakdown
✅ Entry Plan:

• Wait for a breakdown of the green support trendline (flag support).
  
• Then, wait for a re-test of the broken support (now resistance).
  
• Enter short only after a bearish candlestick confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing or rejection wick) on the 15-min or 1-hour chart.

🛡️ Stop Loss:
Place the stop loss just above the major resistance zone, around 1.7835–1.7840.

🎯 Target Zones:

• Target 1 (TG1): 1.7755
  
• Target 2 (TG2): 1.7718
  
• Final Target: 1.7632

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2, 1:4, 1:9.4+

3. Why This Trade Makes Sense

• Bearish Flag is a reliable continuation pattern in strong downtrends.
  
• Price is failing to break above key resistance and 200 EMA.
  
• The flag offers a tight SL and large downside potential — ideal conditions for R:R setups.
  
• Confluence of structure, pattern, and trend all align for short bias.

4. Trade Management Tips

• Scale out partial profits at TG1 and TG2, and trail stop for final target.
  
• If breakdown fails, avoid chasing price — re-evaluate bias if price breaks above 1.7840.

5. Final Thoughts
This EURAUD chart is a textbook case of pattern + price action + resistance confluence. The flag structure is well-defined, and the reward-to-risk ratio is significantly favorable if the breakdown confirms.

📌 Watch for:

• Breakdown of rising support
  
• Retest and bearish candle
  
• Entry only on confirmation

High-probability setups don’t require prediction — they require preparation.

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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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20 小時前

註釋

Updated.