Minor support at .8485. More significant support around .84, strong support around .83, .825 and around .816-.814.
See charts below for further support of this trade.
1M: Key observations - Broke Dn Channel. July was reversal candle and it looks like August will close the same way. Reached from the start of the peak that started the Dn trend to the low following in July 2015.
1W reversal price action. Could easily correct to .8100 - .8000 range.
This trade is still active, however I have reduced my position size and took some early profits. Maybe I am over thinking this trade, but after going short, I observed that this is a really crowded trade. Everyone is seeing what I am seeing. I get a little cautious with overly crowded trades. When the trade is overly crowed and i am in with the crowd, I like to take a step back and make an argument for taking the opposite side. That's not to say I don't make the same decision, but I want to open my mind so I don't have blinders on.
See chart below. If Trend Support Line holds, price could easily make a new higher high. Price is close to that trend support now. I'm watching price action. If trend support is broken, there is still significant support around .84 & .83.
Bottom Line: It's very reasonable for price to make a new HH before a significant correction occurs.
My Trade Adjustments:
- I reduced position size by taking some of my profits early
- SL is at break even
- IF SL get's hit, I'm neutral and will evaluate at that time if I'll look for an opportunity to reenter short, go long, or stay on sidelines.
- Even if trend support breaks, I may reverse bias and look for long entry around .84. I am strongly leaning to go long around .83.
1H chart, RSI showing some bullish divergence. (It's easier to see on 4H). ST after breaking out of triangle we have had LL & LHs. Ideally, I'm looking for a 1H candle close ~.8465 or below to indicate that is still in tack. At current price, I would want a strong reversal candle close to support to enter long position.
Your comments are appreciated.
KEEPING SCORE: WIN