EURJPY Just Broke Out – Is This the Start of a Summer Rally?

📊 1. COT Report – Euro & Yen

EUR (Euro FX – CME):

Non-Commercials:
Long: +5,968 | Short: -4,293 → Net Long increasing
Commercials:
Long: +11,480 | Short: +24,451 → Net Short
→ Speculators are clearly bullish on the euro.
JPY (Japanese Yen – CME):

Non-Commercials:
Long: -5,319 | Short: +1,235 → Net Long decreasing
Commercials:
Long: +31,893 | Short: +25,462 → Hedging, but still net short
→ The yen continues to be sold, especially by institutional players.
📌 EUR/JPY COT Summary:
Speculators are buying EUR and selling JPY → strong bullish bias on EUR/JPY.

🧠 2. Retail Sentiment

80% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY, with an average entry at 161.50
Current price is around 167.20 → retail is heavily underwater
✅ Strong contrarian bullish signal

📉 3. Technical Analysis
Price broke out of a long-term range, printing new yearly highs
RSI is overbought but with no active bearish divergence
Price sits inside a major supply zone between 166.50 and 168.00, where previous rejections occurred
A potential pullback to the 164.60–164.15 area aligns with ascending trendline support

🟡 Likely Scenario:
A healthy technical pullback to 164.50–165.00 to cool off RSI,
followed by a continuation higher if supported by momentum and COT positioning

📅 4. Seasonality

June is historically a bullish month for EUR/JPY:

5-year avg: +1.167%
2-year avg: +2.41%
→ Seasonality supports more upside into early July

🌍 5. Macro Context

BoJ remains dovish, no sign of imminent tightening
ECB is steady but relatively less dovish → rate differential still favors the euro
No signs yet of verbal intervention from Japan.