EURJPY Hits Major Weekly Supply | Is the Bull Run Over?

EUR/JPY – Institutional Macro Context (COT)

EUR (Euro)
Non-commercials net longs increased by +16,146 → strong buying.
Commercials added +25,799 long positions.
✅ Bias: Moderately bullish.

JPY (Japanese Yen)
Non-commercials decreased longs by -4,432.
Commercials cut -20,405 long contracts.
❌ Bias: Bearish pressure remains on JPY.

Conclusion (COT): EUR remains fundamentally strong, JPY structurally weak. Institutional flows favor long EUR/JPY, but positioning is stretched.

Seasonality (July)
EURJPY shows strong bullish seasonality in July, especially over the 2Y and 5Y averages (+1.03% and +0.66% respectively).
✅ Seasonality bias: Bullish.

Retail Sentiment
89% of traders are short on EUR/JPY.
Contrarian bias = bullish confirmation.

Technical Analysis (Weekly View)
Price is pushing into a major weekly supply zone around 172.50–173.00.
RSI still elevated but showing signs of weakening momentum.
Potential double top structure forming in confluence with liquidity grab.
First downside target sits around 169.50 (daily demand zone).
Awaiting a reaction in supply and confirmation for short.

Trading Plan (Top-Down)
Wait for price to reject the 172.50–173.00 area
Watch for bearish confirmation on Daily (engulfing or lower high)
Target: 169.50 zone
Risk: tight above 173.20 (invalidating supply zone)