EUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless Data

7月17日

EUR/USD Forecast – Bears in Control Ahead of US Jobless Data
🌐 Macro View: Dollar Regains Strength Amid Uncertainty
EUR/USD remains under selling pressure as the greenback finds renewed strength following midweek weakness. The market is bracing for fresh U.S. jobless claims data, expected to show a slight rise to 235K. A print below 220K could reignite USD demand, while a surprise above 240K may offer a temporary lifeline for the euro.

Amid geopolitical and economic turbulence, the euro continues to underperform as investors shift to the dollar for safety and yield advantage.

📉 Technical Outlook – MMF & Smart Money Perspective
The recent breakdown below 1.1600 confirms the bearish momentum. Based on the MMF (Market Momentum Flow) methodology, price action is currently moving within a controlled distribution structure, suggesting further downside potential.

Key zones identified from H1 structure:

OBS + FVG High Zone (1.1662 – 1.1687): Strong supply zone + volume imbalance.

1.1637: Mid-key level and possible liquidity magnet.
1.1616 – 1.1573: Ideal area for sweeping sell-side liquidity before any sustainable bounce.

If price reclaims 1.1662, intraday bullish correction may be in play. However, as long as 1.1687 holds, bears remain in control.

🧭 Trade Plan for Today
🔴 SELL ZONE: 1.1662 – 1.1687 (FVG + OBS Volume Zone)
SL: 1.1710
TP: 1.1637 → 1.1616 → 1.1590 → 1.1573

✅ Preferred entry zone aligned with high-volume imbalance & MMF rejection pattern.

🟢 BUY ZONE (Scalp Only): 1.1575 – 1.1580 (Sell-side Liquidity Zone)
SL: 1.1550

TP: 1.1612 → 1.1630 → 1.1645

⚠️ Use with caution — only upon clear price reaction at lower liquidity sweep area.

🔍 Strategy Insight
This is a classic scenario of a controlled pullback within a larger bearish structure. Patience is key — let price tap into imbalanced zones before executing. Given today's U.S. data, volatility may spike during the New York session, so risk management is crucial.

💬 What’s Your Take?
Do you expect EUR/USD to retest the 1.1550s zone, or could a surprise from U.S. job data flip the narrative?

👇 Drop your analysis below & follow for more MMF-based setups.

7月18日

交易進行

EURUSD Plan Playing Out as Expected – Watch Key Reversal Zone
The EURUSD setup is unfolding exactly as anticipated, and the pair is now reacting at a key OBS Zone combined with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. This confluence is crucial — traders should closely monitor price behavior here for potential reversal signals.
🔗 Chart view:
However, there's still a chance that price might sweep the entire H1 Fair Value Gap (FVG) Zone before initiating a proper pullback.

📈 Stay patient and wait for clear confirmation before entering any reversal trades.