EURUSD - Short term Short opportunity

2015年8月2日

In the longer term time frames we can see an ascending triangle formation and a descending channel, both of which signify a bullish market.

However, on the 30 minute time-frame, my analysis is suggesting that there is a potential short opportunity to capture some pips. Even before the Fibonacci levels became valid (through plotting the low point at 1.08921), they were being respected as S/R levels. The most notable being the 0.382 level at around 1.09800. It's clear to see how there was major resistance at this level and the only thing that could break that resistance was fundamental news releases.

Since then the market has corrected and brought it back down to the 0.382 level, which means the market will either bounce and go up, or go down (which I fully expect it to do, given the strength of this level).

An optimal entry point would be once it breaches another strong, natural level of S/R at the dotted red line (1.9640), as shown with the short position risk:reward tool.

Stops can be kept tight or loose, depending on how you feel, but if it broke that resistance at 0.382 and didn't quickly retrace, it'll take off. I'm keeping my profit line just above the 1.08921 line as this could prove to be some strong support, however, don't be surprised if it continues down to the blue dotted line, which is the long-term trendline which makes up the ascending triangle on the higher timeframes.

My personal order is for:
- £0.50 per point.
- 1.09550 Entry
- 1.09710 Stop (-£8)
- 1.09050 Profit (+£25)

Trade shouldn't take too long to complete if it materializes! Good Luck!