Pullback or Deeper Reversal After False Breakout Near 1.1425?

EUR/USD Weekly Plan: Pullback or Deeper Reversal After False Breakout Near 1.1425?
🧭 MARKET OVERVIEW
EUR/USD surged toward a new monthly high at 1.1425 earlier this week but quickly lost momentum and retraced to the 1.137x zone as the US Dollar bounced back. While the short-term recovery in DXY supported the dip, macro uncertainty surrounding Trump’s erratic trade policies continues to raise questions about the dollar’s long-term credibility.

Meanwhile, Germany’s revised Q1 GDP growth of 0.4% (vs. 0.2% prior) helped support EUR, reinforcing its appeal as a safe alternative to the greenback.

📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 Chart)
Main Trend: Short-term correction after strong bullish rally

Resistance Levels:

1.14165 → Previous top, strong reversal zone

1.14017 → Minor supply zone

Support Levels:

1.13476 → Key break structure zone

1.12791 → Daily demand zone & previous FVG bottom

Indicators:

EMA 20 & EMA 50 crossover signals weakening bullish momentum

Price Pattern: Potential double top forming below 1.1425

🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT
Trump’s tariff threat postponed to July 9, but his unpredictable tone weakens USD trust.

Germany Q1 GDP upgraded to 0.4% → boosts confidence in Eurozone’s economic resilience.

ECB expected to cut rates in June, with policymakers showing confidence inflation will reach 2% target this year.

This week’s key focus:
→ US PCE Price Index (April)
→ EU May HICP (CPI)
These will drive short-term volatility and determine breakout/reversal confirmation.

✅ TRADE SETUPS
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 1.1400–1.1416

SL: 1.1440

TP: 1.1382 → 1.1347 → 1.1279

🟢 BUY SCALP ZONE:
Entry: 1.1345–1.1347

SL: 1.1320

TP: 1.1382 → 1.1400

📌 Preferred scenario: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.1400–1.1416 to enter short. Avoid aggressive buys unless price strongly holds above 1.1384.

🧩 CONCLUSION
EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion after testing 1.1425. If bears reclaim 1.1384 and hold below 1.1347, deeper correction toward 1.1279 is likely. Conversely, if bulls defend 1.1345 and CPI/PCE data disappoints, price may retest highs.