It's been a strong first-half of the year for EUR/USD.
As we came into 2025 it seemed a story of doom and gloom for the Euro, and calls for parity were practically everywhere. But the pair found support in January, held that support in February - and then broke out in a big way in March.
As we wind down Q2 that breakout remains in-play and EUR/USD is pushing fresh three-year highs as the USD sets its own fresh three-year lows.
Of interest is a simple Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2021-2022 major move in the pair.
The 61.8% retracement is what caught the highs in 2023, and the 38.2% marker is what caught the low in April of last year, which held until that late-year breakdown. Along the way, the 50% mark at 1.0943 came into play as support and resistance multiple times.
And as the breakdown took hold through the 2025 open, it was the 23.6% retracement that showed up to catch the lows, right around the 1.0200 handle. As prices has posed a strong recovery over the past four months and change, the levels as taken from that Fibonacci retracement have exhibited a number of inflection points.
And now we have the 78.6% retracement coming into play to mark this week's highs. Notably - the pair is currently overbought on both the daily and weekly charts. And while it's difficult to justify strength in a USD that's been beaten down over the past four months, if looking for a turn - whether it's a simple pullback or perhaps the start of something larger, this resistance in EUR/USD remains a big spot to follow on the chart.
Quarterly cuts can be interesting junctures to investigate for turn potential, especially considering the bearish reversal in EUR/USD around the Q4 open last year. - js
As we came into 2025 it seemed a story of doom and gloom for the Euro, and calls for parity were practically everywhere. But the pair found support in January, held that support in February - and then broke out in a big way in March.
As we wind down Q2 that breakout remains in-play and EUR/USD is pushing fresh three-year highs as the USD sets its own fresh three-year lows.
Of interest is a simple Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2021-2022 major move in the pair.
The 61.8% retracement is what caught the highs in 2023, and the 38.2% marker is what caught the low in April of last year, which held until that late-year breakdown. Along the way, the 50% mark at 1.0943 came into play as support and resistance multiple times.
And as the breakdown took hold through the 2025 open, it was the 23.6% retracement that showed up to catch the lows, right around the 1.0200 handle. As prices has posed a strong recovery over the past four months and change, the levels as taken from that Fibonacci retracement have exhibited a number of inflection points.
And now we have the 78.6% retracement coming into play to mark this week's highs. Notably - the pair is currently overbought on both the daily and weekly charts. And while it's difficult to justify strength in a USD that's been beaten down over the past four months, if looking for a turn - whether it's a simple pullback or perhaps the start of something larger, this resistance in EUR/USD remains a big spot to follow on the chart.
Quarterly cuts can be interesting junctures to investigate for turn potential, especially considering the bearish reversal in EUR/USD around the Q4 open last year. - js
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