EUR USD - Weekly curve will provide the next phase

2022年7月21日

Quick mark up

EUR USD - in a huge downward curve towards parity (most likely beyond).

Monthly

• Monthly zone reached 1/1 (or thereabouts with a final close generating a low of 0.9948), expected a reactive buy as a fresh demand zone. Due to the curve being so strong with no real structure pivots on the bearish move, the probable zone of price pivoting to is 1.06 (capped) as a PCP level is hidden here within the Weekly, Monthly Combo.
  
• Structurally, the market cycle here has a key move to go - heading down to an untested structure below at the OL (back in 2001).
  
• From a buying standpoint, a reactive buy as price looks to retest from a daily pivot towards 1.00 will indicate a smaller curve needing to be broken from a newly formed trading range (review daily). The monthly curve previously from June 2002 - Nov 2002, shows a nice consolidative pattern so here price will look to form a similar structure after the PCP is hit.
  

Weekly

• 1 - note the reactive tap here, upon every FL especially a monthly, price will reject the supply imbalance and now create a buying demand market allbeit for a short duration. The likelihood for this is from the strong curve in play, which offers a PCP level as shown in purple, crossed with a monthly. The high chance of this chance hitting for buying targets is key for; how PCP levels are drawn and to take risk adjusted counter moves, knowing the fresh level here can offer a chance of retesting.
  
• (structure below still has a high probable pathway as price action is minimal here). Applying the pink curve as a steep curve adjustment will show price has a disjointed pathway which price can pivot towards, reject and form the weekly trading range. (see chart below 1 weekly)
  

Chart 1 - weekly



*** updates added.
Daily

• From the daily chart - price has created a low forming a strong daily imbalance between the 0.9948-1.005 range of 102 pips, this now offers the high probability of price to revert back once breaking the curve to form a retest of the zone allowing the opportunity for a reactive buy of the zone.
  
• Subject to the daily pivot point, using the Fibonacci sequence - for a strong retest expect 0.705 to be a level of high interest as this aligns with the zone for a reactive buying point.
  A follow up area is the 0.5 in this case as the previous wick on July 13 looks to be a net imbalance candle. (review chart below).
  

Fibonacci Chart - Daily