EUR/USD at Key Decision Zone – Breakout or Smart Money Trap?

🟢 Current Context
Price: 1.13820 USD
Trend: Strong bullish structure, with impulsive moves especially in April.
Main timeframe: Appears to be daily or weekly, with multi-timeframe zones (1W, 1M marked).

🧱 Key Zones

🔴 Supply Zone (1.13000–1.15000)
Well-defined area of historic selling pressure. Price reacted with a temporary drop but bounced right back into it.

🟦 Demand Zone (1.08500–1.10000)
Major order block where the current rally was initiated. Price used this as a base to launch higher.

⚫ Lower Supports

1.03600: Weekly support
1.02838: Monthly support
Broad accumulation zone (grey box) from which this trend began.
📈 Price Structure
Strong breakout above 1.10–1.11 resistance.
Currently pulling back inside the supply zone – the dashed arrows hint at potential liquidity sweeps before a continuation to 1.15+.

🔍 Momentum Indicator (likely RSI/CCI)
Currently elevated, but not yet in extreme overbought. No clear divergence. Momentum favors bulls.

📊 Scenarios

✅ Bullish:
Clean break above 1.14500–1.15000 opens the door to 1.1600 and 1.1800. Wait for a structural retest for safer long entries.

⚠️ Bearish (corrective):
Strong rejection from the supply zone → potential pullback to 1.10–1.0850 (blue zone).
Only below 1.0850 would a deeper bearish structure toward 1.03600 be confirmed.

🧠 Strategic Note
This is a zone of clear smart money activity: liquidity grabs on both ends.
Watch how this weekly candle closes – we’re either validating above 1.13 or setting up a trap for late longs.