@cmc, that's not what I was asking. I'm saying how do you know the price will hit 1.171 within your specified time frame. For all we know it'll go up from here and hit the top of the current downward channel (but not my expectation).
@cmc, I see. Thanks for taking the time to engage and explain. Personally, I think down is more likely for several reasons... consecutive lower highs, downtrend since early September (as you pointed out), and head-and-shoulder pattern since early July. If the pair goes up, I don't think it will go as high as you have drawn (I expect the pair to stay within the current downward channel, forming yet another lower high). Good luck.