The Euro rally exhausted into uptrend resistance into the start of the month with EUR/USD threatening to snap a two-week winning streak at fresh yearly highs. Price has fallen more than 1% from the high and the near-term threat for a larger correction remains below the weekly open at 1.1775.
A break below the weekly opening-range today threatens further declines within this formation with initial support objective seen at the 1.618% extension / 2016 high at 1.1609/16 and the April high at 1.1573. Note that the April trendline converges on this threshold next week and a break / close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support rests with the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1440.
Initial resistance is eyed with the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.1748 and is backed closely by the objective weekly / monthly open at 1.1775/87- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bearish invalidation levels with a breach above the upper parallel (currently near ~1.1830s) ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.1917 and the 1.618% extension of the January rally at 1.1990.
Bottom line: A reversal off uptrend resistance into the monthly open threatens a larger correction here in EUR/USD. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.1573 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
-MB
A break below the weekly opening-range today threatens further declines within this formation with initial support objective seen at the 1.618% extension / 2016 high at 1.1609/16 and the April high at 1.1573. Note that the April trendline converges on this threshold next week and a break / close below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered last week / a larger reversal is underway- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support rests with the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1440.
Initial resistance is eyed with the 78.6% retracement of the 2021 decline at 1.1748 and is backed closely by the objective weekly / monthly open at 1.1775/87- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bearish invalidation levels with a breach above the upper parallel (currently near ~1.1830s) ultimately needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance eyed at the 100% extension of the 2022 advance at 1.1917 and the 1.618% extension of the January rally at 1.1990.
Bottom line: A reversal off uptrend resistance into the monthly open threatens a larger correction here in EUR/USD. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.1573 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
-MB
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