Weekly closing price: 1.2027
Despite the fact that the EUR/USD ended the week in the green, the pair chalked up a weekly selling wick around a weekly coming in at 1.2044, and a 127.2% weekly Fib ext. point at 1.2081. This could point to a potential breach of the 2018 yearly opening level seen on the at 1.2004 this week.
In conjunction with weekly structure, the daily candles show that price spent the best part of last week probing a daily Quasimodo at 1.2070, seen a few pips beneath the aforesaid weekly Fib extension. Should Friday’s closing candle, shaped in the form of a near-full-bodied daily candle, be enough confirmation to attract further selling, the next daily support target in range can be seen at 1.1878 which happens to boast strong daily confluence.
The immediate aftermath of Friday’s dismal US employment report saw a push to highs of 1.2082. The move, however, was a short-lived one as price trimmed gains and struck a low of 1.2020. Near-term H4 action shows the large psychological number 1.20 is likely going to be brought into the fray today, which is positioned nearby the 2018 yearly opening level mentioned above at 1.2004. As a result, this area will likely attract fresh buyers.
According to the technicals, selling from the noted weekly and daily resistances should only be considered valid upon a firm break of 1.20. A violation of this level possibly opens the river south down to at least the H4 broken Quasimodo line at 1.1944, which, as you can see, is accompanied by a H4 demand base at 1.1936-1.1949. A close below 1.20, followed up with a clean retest of the level as resistance is a promising sign that the bears may look to take things lower.
A buy from 1.20 is also interesting given its connection to the 2018 yearly opening level at 1.2004. Be that as it may, this yearly level has yet to prove itself and therefore may fail considering the resistances seen directly above it!
Data points to consider: FOMC member Bostic speaks at 5.40pm; FOMC member Williams speaks at 6.35pm GMT .