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1.0797-1.0780 is an interesting base on the EUR this morning...

FX:EURUSD   歐元 / 美元
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The single currency is marginally stronger today after the pair endured and finally conquered the H4 supply zone at 1.0753-1.0734. In view of the unit’s close proximity to a H4 supply at 1.0797-1.0780, what’s likely in store for this major today? Well, the current H4 supply is a rather interesting barrier. Not only does it boast February’s opening level at 1.0801 and the 1.08 handle a few pips above, but it also houses a possible H4 AB=CD (black arrows) bearish completion point (0.0793) taken from the low 1.0525.

What’s also notable from a technical perspective is the weekly resistance hurdle drawn from 1.0819. This is, on both the weekly and daily charts , the next upside target in view. As such, for traders interested in shorting from the aforementioned H4 supply area will need to prepare for the possibility of a fakeout up to this weekly level!

Our suggestions: Rather than placing a pending sell order within our current H4 supply and setting a stop in order to try and cover the possibility of a fakeout, our desk has decided to wait and see if the fakeout occurs before entering this market. In the event that our analysis is correct and the fakeout does indeed take place, we may look to enter on the close of the fakeout candle and place stops beyond its high. It could prove to be one of those monster trades given that we’re dealing with the weekly timeframe , so it is certainly worth the wait!

Data points to consider: US prelim UoM consumer sentiment at 2pm GMT .
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