Fundamental Market Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSD

U.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair.

Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war.

On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR).

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350