Ford Continuing Bullish, Stair Stepping and Rolling Up

NYSE:F   福特汽车公司
I am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial advice. I do not consider myself a professional stock trader, and most people would agree with me. I currently have shares in Ford for a long term hold. I just purchased two call options (March 16, 2018 expiration at Strike 13; Options Ask Price $.50, Stock Price was $13.26) in Ford on Friday, January 12, 2018.

What I see is Ford making a Stair Step Pattern (with a bit of rolling thrown in) in forty cent ($.40) increments. From October through November 2017 it rolled between $12.00 and $12.40; when it broke that pattern it rolled between $12.40 and $12.80 from the end of November 2017 to the beginning of January 2018; it broke that pattern on January 04, 2018 and we come to the present where it is settled just above $13.20. If it continues with this consistency I believe its next stop will be the $13.60ish area. I have drawn that out in an attempt to give a visual aid; the explanation will be from bottom to top. The bottom two horizontal lines and bottom double vertical arrow (orange) display the first stair step and roll; the second double vertical arrow (green) in between the second and third horizontal line show the next step up; the third arrow (red) between the next lines continues the trend; and the top arrow (blue) displays my prediction of what I think Ford Stock will do. So, a brief recap of that paragraph: $12.00-$12.40, $12.40-$12.80, $12.80-$13.20 (current) and $13.20-$13.60 (predicted).

Will Ford go straight to the $13.60 area or will it roll a time or two, as it has been doing between the steps? I don't know. I have taken both possibilities into consideration and have added them to the visual display in the forms of two drawn lines. The rolling, "W" shaped arrow (black) displays a possibility of a roll before continuing up; and the short, straight arrow (purple) displays a possibility of a straight shot. Of course, the third possibility that always exists is that Ford will just fall. I don't think so, but it is a possibility so I think it needs to be mentioned. Here are reasons for considering what I believe to be the most likely two scenarios. First, the roll; Ford may continue to roll between $12.80 and $13.20 (or any area in between) just because that is what it has been doing for the past couple of times before continuing up to the next level. That is the most consistent, reliable, and repeatable pattern and possibility. The second possibility is Ford skipping the roll and going straight to the next level. This is a possibility because of a number of reasons. First, it closed above $13.20 on the last trading day (Friday, January 12, 2018); but more specifically it closed above $13.22. $13.22 is significant to me because that number/price formed a Tweezer Top Pattern on back to back trading days (it wouldn't really be a Tweezer Pattern if it didn't, right?) of Friday, January 05 and Monday, January 08, 2018. By closing above the Tweezer Tops I think Ford is signaling it's ready to move on. Second, after the Tweezer Ford formed a not so textbook Rising Three Pattern indicating a continuing bullish move. Third, it closed above the Tweezer Tops and Rising Three on a volume of nearly 57 Million which is double the volume of it's previous trading day. You can decide for yourself which short term pattern Ford will follow; but regardless of what it does short term, I think it is safe to say it is continuing a bullish trend for the mid to long term. I wrote an analysis of that previously which you can view so I won't go into detail here.

Ford will release 2017 Fourth Quarter Earnings after the Market closes on Wednesday, January 24, 2018. What is, or is not, said may or may not impact the Stock. Ford is a dividend paying Stock if you are considering a low cost Stock to invest in. It has not yet released it's First Quarter 2018 dividend information but if you want in you'll need to be quick as I expect it within the next few days.
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