FB Bullish Cyclical Movement

FB over the last 4 months has been very simple movement. This is not consistent with my usual TA methods, but it was very easy to see. These are simply peak-to-trough movements.

The average move up since the 32% run in the summer (October to now) is 9.84% and the average length of a move is only 13.8 days. The peak is almost always reached by 50% of the way through the cycle, making my ideal target $295 in by December 21st.

The risk of this is obviously, anti-trust pursuits against FB again. I'm of the mindset that price precedes news, so I've just taken the trade already. From a technical standpoint, FB is trading in a multi month pennant that everyone should be aware of by now. If FB rejects at the pennant, that's a move to $285, and 6.3% from today's low, which I believe was the beginning of this current cycle.

Disclosure: I am long FB in January spreads.