3/6/25 Surprise Gap Up, Bulls Need Follow-through Buying

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Jun 3) was a bear bar doji closing in its lower half with a long tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar, or if the market would trade slightly lower, but close with a long tail below or with a bull body instead.
   
3. The market gapped up at the open and traded significantly higher but reversed to close in its lower half by the end of the day.
   
4. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and May 30).
   
5. They want the 20-day EMA to act as support, forming a higher low and a wedge bull flag (with the first two legs being the May 16 and May 26 lows). So far, this is the case.
   
6. They want a breakout above the 4000 high followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area.
   
7. They must create follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA and breaking above the May 14 high to increase the odds of a reversal.
   
8. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and Jun 3) and a double top bear flag (May 14 and Jun 3).
   
9. They hope the May 14 high area (around 4000) will act as resistance.
   
10. They must create bear bars trading below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of another strong leg down.
    
11. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems ok.
    
13. Export: Remain to be seen.
    
14. For tomorrow (Wednesday, June 4), traders will see if the bulls can continue to follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA. If they can create a strong breakout above the 4000 area, the odds of a measured move up to around 4150 will increase.
    
15. Or will the bears be able to create bear bars trading back below the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead?
    

Andrew