27/5/25 - FT Bull Bar or More FT Selling?

1. Monday’s candlestick (26 May) was a bear doji closing near its high with a long tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we said the market could still trade at least a little lower. Traders would see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar closing near its low, or if they would fail to do so, and the candlestick would close with a long tail below or with a bull body instead.
   
3. The market traded below the May 16 low, but the follow-through selling was limited and the market reversed to near its high.
   
4. The bears want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14) and another smaller double top bear flag (May 14 and May 20).
   
5. They want another strong leg down to retest the May 8 low.
   
6. They must continue creating follow-through selling to increase the odds of lower prices.
   
7. The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (May 16 and May 22).
   
8. They need to create a follow-through bull bar tomorrow to increase the odds of a reversal.
   
9. They hope to get at least a retest of the 20-day EMA (around 3880).
   
10. Exports for the first 25 days seem good, +7%
    
11. Production is up marginally so far.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems ok.
    
13. For tomorrow (Tuesday, 27 May), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high. If so, the odds of a retest of the 20-day EMA or the 3950 area will increase.
    
14. Or will the bears be able to create more follow-through selling still?
    
15. The consecutive doji in the last two trading days indicate an area of temporary balance.
    

Andrew