10/6/25 Bear Bar Below 20-Day EMA or Outside Bull Bar?

1. Monday’s candlestick (Jun 9) was a small bear doji.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a bull entry bar testing near the Jun 3 high area, or if the bears would get another attempt to close below the 20-day EMA.
   
3. The market traded above Friday's high but the bulls did not get a strong bull entry bar. In the night session currently, the market formed another retest of the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and Jun 3) and a double top bear flag (May 14 and Jun 3). They see another smaller wedge bear flag (May 29, Jun 3, and Jun 9).
   
5. They must create strong bear bars trading below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of another strong leg down.
   
6. They want tomorrow to close as a strong bear bar below the 20-day EMA.
   
7. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and May 30). They see the market creating a double bottom bull flag (May 30 and Jun 6) or a wedge bull flag (May 30, Jun 6, and Jun 10).
   
8. They want the 20-day EMA to act as support, forming higher lows.
   
9. They want a breakout above the 4000 high followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area.
   
10. The 4030 area could also be an area of resistance (weekly 20-day EMA).
    
11. They want the market to form an outside bull bar closing near its high tomorrow.
    
12. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
14. Export: Rumored to be strong in the first 10 days +25-30%
    
15. For tomorrow (Tuesday, June 10), traders will see if the bears can maintain the candlestick as a bear bar (since the market has traded below Monday's low).
    
16. Or will the bulls be able to create a reversal to close the day as an outside bull bar? If this is the case, the market could attempt to break out above the 4000 level after that.
    
17. The market is about balanced for the bulls and bears, and neither side has a significant edge yet.
    

Andrew