- Wednesday’s candlestick (Jul 16) was an inside bull bar closing near its high.
- In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bears could create a follow-through bear bar, even if it were just a bear doji, or if the market would trade higher to retest the July 14 high. If this is the case, it will indicate the bears are not yet strong.
- The market is forming a retest of the July 14 high, currently a lower high.
- Recently, the bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 14) and a measured move to around the 4250 area.
- They see the current move as a pullback and want a retest of the July 14 high, followed by a breakout above the bar trend line.
- The bulls need to create more follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
- The bears want a higher high major trend reversal and a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 14). They want a major lower high vs the April high.
- They hope the bear trend line will act as resistance.
- They see the current move as a retest of the July 14 high and want it to form a lower high.
- The bears were not able to create follow-through selling today (Wednesday), which indicates they are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
- They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
- Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher.
- Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently. Slightly quieter on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Export: Down 6% in the first 15 days.
- So far, the market has traded sideways in the last 7 trading days around the bear trend line area.
- Wednesday was an inside bar, which means the market is in breakout mode. The bulls want a breakout above, while the bears want a breakout below the inside bar. The first breakout can fail 50% of the time.
- For now, traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying to retest the July 14 high, or if the market continues to trade sideways within the small trading range.
- For tomorrow (Thursday, Jul 17), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar testing the July 14 high.
- Or will the market form a lower high (versus July 14) and be followed by some selling pressure instead?
Andrew
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