18/6/25 Bulls Need FT Buying, Bears Want FT Bear Bar

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Jun 17) opened higher but closed as a bear bar near its low.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create follow-through buying over the next several days, or if the market traded down and lacked follow-through buying instead. If this is the case, it will indicate the bulls are not yet strong.
   
3. The market traded higher but closed as a bear bar. The bulls did not get a follow-through bull bar.
   
4. The bulls got a breakout above the small trading range on Monday.
   
5. They want a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area.
   
6. They see Tuesday simply as a pullback after a big move. They would have preferred to get a follow-through bull bar or even just a bull doji to indicate some follow-through buying.
   
7. But it was not the case which indicates the bulls are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
   
8. However, if the price does not trade below Jun 17's low, the market could still form a bull microchannel.
   
9. At the least, they want a retest of the Jun 17 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
10. They must create follow-through buying over the next few days to increase the odds of a sustained move.
    
11. If there is a pullback, they want it to be weak and sideways.
    
12. The bears see the current move as a deep pullback.
    
13. They want it to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range.
    
14. They must create strong bear bars to increase the odds of a failed breakout.
    
15. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
16. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
17. Export: Looks strong in the first 15 days +25%
    
18. For tomorrow (Wednesday, Jun 18), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying over the next several days. If they can, that will increase the odds of a more sustained move.
    
19. Or will the bears get a follow-through bear bar instead? If this is the case, it will indicate the bulls' case is not as strong as they hope for.
    

Andrew