- Tuesday's candlestick (May 6) was a bear bar closing in its lower half with small tails.
- In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the January low, or if the market would form a small retest of yesterday's low (but possibly a higher low), but stall and trade higher instead.
- Bulls attempted to create intraday reversals but the follow-through buying was limited. The market closed as a bear bar for the day.
- The bears want a strong breakout below the January low followed by a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range which would take the market to the 3200 area.
- In the night market session, the candlestick is currently a bear bar trading near its low, and below Monday's low.
- If the bears can get strong consecutive bear bars, that would increase the odds of a successful breakout.
- The bulls want a reversal from a double bottom (with the January low). They want a failed breakout and a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal.
- They hope the bottom of the trading range will act as support.
- They must create strong bull bars over the next several days to increase the odd of a failed breakout.
- The market broke out below the January low on Monday. The bulls attempted to create a failed breakout on Tuesday but the follow-through buying is still limited.
- Traders want to see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling over the next several days. If they can do that, the odds of a successful breakout and a measured move will increase.
- So far in the night session, the candlestick is a follow-through bear bar trading below Monday's low.
- For tomorrow (Wednesday, 7/5/25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling below the January low.
- Or will the candlestick close with a long tail below or a bull body? If this is the case, especially if the bulls can create follow-through buying over the next several days, they could swing the odds to a failed breakout.
Andrew
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