22/5/25 Stall at 20-day EMA, Can Bears Get Bear Entry Bar?

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (21 May) was an inside bear bar closing in its lower half and closing below the 20-day EMA.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create another follow-through bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA, or if the market would continue to stall around the 20-day EMA area. If this is the case, the odds of a retest of the May 16 low will increase.
   
3. The market opened higher in the morning but traded sideways to down for most of the day in a tight range. The bulls could not create another follow-through bull bar, and the market is currently stalling at the 20-day EMA.
   
4. The bears see the recent move as a retest of the May 14 high and want it to form a lower high. So far, the pullback is a lower high.
   
5. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (April 25 and May 14) and another smaller double top bear flag (May 14 and May 20).
   
6. They want the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by another strong leg down to retest the May 8 low. So far, the market is stalling around the 20-day EMA.
   
7. They need to create a strong bear entry bar tomorrow to increase the odds of a retest of the May 16 low.
   
8. The bulls want a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal (May 16).
   
9. They want a large second leg sideways to up. So far, the second leg up is forming a lower high and stalling around the 20-day EMA.
   
10. They must create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a reversal.
    
11. Exports for the first 20 days seem ok, +5%
    
12. Production is up marginally so far.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy in recent days seems good. Slightly slow yesterday.
    
14. For tomorrow (Thursday, 22 May), traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear entry bar closing near its low.
    
15. Or will the market continue to trade sideways around the 20-day EMA area?
    

Andrew