6/6/25 - FT Bear Bar or No FT Selling like Jun 3?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Jun 5) was a bear bar closing near its low with a small tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could continue to create follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA, or if the bears would be able to develop bear bars trading back below the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead.
   
3. The market traded lower for the day testing the 20-day EMA, but did not close below it.
   
4. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and May 30).
   
5. They want the 20-day EMA to act as support, forming a higher low. They see the market creating a double bottom bull flag (May 30 and Jun 5).
   
6. They want a breakout above the 4000 high followed by a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area.
   
7. They must create follow-through buying above the 20-day EMA and breaking above the May 14 high to increase the odds of a reversal.
   
8. They want tomorrow to close with a bull body, creating poor follow-through selling for the bears (like Jun 3).
   
9. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and Jun 3) and a double top bear flag (May 14 and Jun 3).
   
10. They hope the May 14 high area (around 4000) will act as resistance.
    
11. They managed to create a bear bar testing the 20-day EMA today.
    
12. They must create a follow-through bear bar closing below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of another strong leg down.
    
13. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
14. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
15. Export: Remain to be seen.
    
16. For tomorrow (Friday, June 6), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar closing below the 20-day EMA.
    
17. Or will the bulls be able to create a bull bar reversing higher instead like June 3?
    

Andrew