25/6/25 Bears Need More Follow-through Selling

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Jun 24) was a big bear bar closing near its low.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling following the sell-off in the night session, or if the market would trade lower but find support around the 4030-50 area instead.
   
3. The market sold off sharply, and the breakout point and the 20-day EMA were tested.
   
4. The bulls hope the top of the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support.
   
5. They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
6. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bears want the current move to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range. So far, the market is reversing lower from a lower high.
   
8. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
   
9. They must create more follow-through selling to increase the odds of a resumption of the broad bear channel.
   
10. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
11. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
12. Export: Looks strong in the first 25 days +5%
    
13. For tomorrow (Wednesday, Jun 25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling.
    
14. The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down leg after a small pullback.
    

Andrew