- Thursday’s candlestick (Jul 10) was a bear doji closing slightly below the middle of its range.
- In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create a strong bear bar closing near its low, or if the market would trade lower, but close with a long tail below or above the middle of its range instead.
- The market traded lower in the night session but there was no strong follow-through selling during the day.
- The bulls see the current move forming a small bull flag (a double bottom bull flag on the 60-minute chart).
- They want it to form a higher low vs Jul 7.
- They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area.
- They want another leg up to complete the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jul 3 and Jul 9.
- The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a higher high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
- They see the move from June 11 as a large two-legged move. They want a lower high vs the April high.
- They must create sustained follow-through selling to show they are back in control.
- Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June.
- Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
- Export: data is mixed, remain to be seen.
- So far, the follow-through selling by the bears is still limited. They are not yet as strong as they hoped for.
- For now, traders will see if the current move is simply a pullback, to be followed by another leg up after the pullback, or if the bears can start creating sustained follow-through selling.
- For tomorrow (Friday, Jul 11), traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar closing near its low.
- Or will the market continue to trade sideways with limited follow-through selling, and trade higher to retest Jul 9 high instead?
Andrew
相關出版品
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。