19/6/25 - Bulls Need Strong Breakout Above Jun 17 High

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (Jun 18) was an inside bull bar closing in its upper half.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create follow-through buying over the next several days, or if the bears would get a follow-through bear bar instead.
   
3. The market traded slightly higher and the bears could not get a follow-through bear bar.
   
4. The bulls got a breakout above the small trading range on Monday.
   
5. They want a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range which will take the market to around the 4150 area.
   
6. They see Tuesday simply as a pullback after a big move.
   
7. If the price does not trade below Jun 18's low, the market could still form a bull microchannel.
   
8. They must create a strong breakout above the Jun 17 high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
9. The bears see the current move as a deep pullback.
   
10. They want it to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range.
    
11. They were not able to create a follow-through bear bar today which indicates the bears are not yet strong.
    
12. They must create consecutive strong bear bars to increase the odds of a failed breakout.
    
13. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
14. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
15. Export: Looks strong in the first 15 days +25%
    
16. For tomorrow (Thursday, Jun 19), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong breakout above the Jun 17 high with sustained follow-through buying.
    
17. Or will the market stall around the Jun 17 high area instead? If this continues to be the case, the odds of a pullback will increase after that.
    

Andrew