- Tuesday’s candlestick (Jul 8) was a big bull bar with a small tail above and closing above Jun 20 high.
- In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar testing the July 4 high, or if the bears would be able to create a strong bear bar closing below Monday's low instead.
- The market formed a strong follow-through bull bar testing the Jun 20 high.
- The bulls hope to get a retest of the July 4 high and the Jun 20 high. They got what they wanted.
- They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area.
- They must create follow-through buying above the Jun 20 high to increase the odds of a sustained move.
- The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a higher high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
- They see the current move from June 11 as a large two-legged move. They want a lower high vs the April high.
- The problem with the bear's case is that the follow-through selling has been limited still.
- They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
- Production for July should be around June's level.
- Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
- Export: Up 31% in the first 5 days of July.
- The Trump Tariffs have increased inflation expectations as reflected in the rising US Government Bond 10 Year Yield. Rising inflation expectations can cause commodities to rise.
- The bulls need to create follow-through buying above the Jun 20 high for a sustained move higher.
- For tomorrow (Wednesday, Jul 9), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar above the Jun 20 high.
- Or will the market trade slightly higher but close with a long tail or a bear body instead?
Andrew
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