9/7/25 Can Bulls Create More FT Buying?

1. Tuesday’s candlestick (Jul 8) was a big bull bar with a small tail above and closing above Jun 20 high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar testing the July 4 high, or if the bears would be able to create a strong bear bar closing below Monday's low instead.
   
3. The market formed a strong follow-through bull bar testing the Jun 20 high.
   
4. The bulls hope to get a retest of the July 4 high and the Jun 20 high. They got what they wanted.
   
5. They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area.
   
6. They must create follow-through buying above the Jun 20 high to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
7. The bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a higher high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
   
8. They see the current move from June 11 as a large two-legged move. They want a lower high vs the April high.
   
9. The problem with the bear's case is that the follow-through selling has been limited still.
   
10. They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
    
11. Production for July should be around June's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: Up 31% in the first 5 days of July.
    
14. The Trump Tariffs have increased inflation expectations as reflected in the rising US Government Bond 10 Year Yield. Rising inflation expectations can cause commodities to rise.
    
15. The bulls need to create follow-through buying above the Jun 20 high for a sustained move higher.
    
16. For tomorrow (Wednesday, Jul 9), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar above the Jun 20 high.
    
17. Or will the market trade slightly higher but close with a long tail or a bear body instead?
    

Andrew