23/6/25 Can Bulls Get a BO or Stall Around 4150?

1. Friday’s candlestick (Jun 20) was an outside bull doji closing slightly above the middle of its range.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong breakout above the 4150 with sustained follow-through buying, or if the market would stall around the 4150 area and profit-taking activity begins instead. Because of the 8-bar bull microchannel, buyers may be below the first pullback.
   
3. The market stalled around the 4150 area with profit-taking trading below Thursday's low. However, there were buyers below the first pullback and the market reversed off its low to close up for the day.
   
4. The bulls broke out above the small trading range with follow-through buying last week.
   
5. They got a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range to the 4150 area.
   
6. The next target for the bulls is the 4200-50 area.
   
7. The move up is in a tight bull channel. The bulls are relatively stronger.
   
8. They must create a strong breakout above the Jun 17 high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move towards the 4200-50 area.
   
9. The bears want the current move to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range.
   
10. So far, the bears have not yet been able to create follow-through selling which indicates the bears are not yet strong.
    
11. They must create consecutive strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
    
12. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
14. Export: Looks strong in the first 20 days +10%
    
15. For tomorrow (Monday, Jun 23), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong breakout above the 4150 with sustained follow-through buying.
    
16. Or will the market stall around the 4150 area followed by more profit-taking activity instead?
    

Andrew