4/7/25 More FT Buying or Stall & Bear Bars Instead?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Jul 3) was a small bull bar closing in its upper half.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar, closing near its high, or if the market would trade higher but close with a long tail above or a bearish body instead.
   
3. The market traded sideways to up and the bulls got a follow-through bull bar.
   
4. The bulls hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
5. They must continue to create follow-through buying to show they are back in control.
   
6. The bears want the spike up (Jun 20) to form a major lower high (vs April). So far, this is the case.
   
7. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
   
8. They see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a lower high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
   
9. They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
   
10. Production for July should be around June's level.
    
11. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
12. Export: To be seen in July.
    
13. The market is forming a retest of the Jun 20 high and so far, it is a lower high.
    
14. The bulls need to do more to show they are back in control by creating follow-through buying trading above the Jun 20 high for a sustained move higher.
    
15. If the market continues to stall around or below the Jun 20 high, the odds of a double top bear flag (with Jun 20) will increase.
    
16. For tomorrow (Friday, Jul 4), traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar closing near its high.
    
17. Or will the market stall and form bear bars instead?
    

Andrew