18/7/25 Weekly Candlestick To Close Near Its High or Tail Above?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Jul 17) was a doji bar with a long tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar testing the July 14 high, or if the market would form a lower high (versus July 14) and be followed by some selling pressure instead.
   
3. The market traded above Wednesday's high, but the follow-through buying was limited.
   
4. The bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 18).
   
5. They want a retest of the July 14 high, followed by a breakout above the bar trend line. They got it in Thursday night's session.
   
6. The bulls need to create sustained follow-through buying above the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
7. The bears want a higher high major trend reversal and a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 18). They want a major lower high vs the April high.
   
8. They hope the bear trend line will act as resistance. They want the market to reverse below the bear trend line and the July 14 high within 5 trading days.
   
9. The bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, and July 15), which indicates they are not yet as strong as they had hoped to be.
   
10. They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
    
11. Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
    
13. Export: Down 6% in the first 15 days.
    
14. So far, the bulls created a breakout above the 8-day small trading range in Thursday night's session.
    
15. Traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying tomorrow. If they do, the weekly candlestick will close near its high, which will increase the odds of next week trading at least a little higher.
    
16. For tomorrow (Friday, Jul 18), traders will see if the bulls can close the day's candlestick near its high.
    
17. Or will the daily candlestick close with a long tail above or below the middle of its range instead?
    

Andrew