7/7/25 Can Bears Get a Strong Bear Entry Bar?

1. Friday’s candlestick (Jul 4) was an overlapping bear bar closing near its low with a prominent tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create another follow-through bull bar closing near its high, or if the market would stall and form bear bars instead.
   
3. The market tested the prior day's high (in the overnight session) but closed as a bear bar near its low.
   
4. The bulls hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high. So far, this is the case.
   
5. They must continue to create follow-through buying to show they are back in control.
   
6. The bears want the spike up (Jun 20) to form a major lower high (vs April). So far, this is the case.
   
7. They see the current move as a retest of the prior high (Jun 20) and want a lower high major trend reversal and a double top bear flag (with the Jun 20 high).
   
8. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
   
9. They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
   
10. Production for July should be around June's level.
    
11. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
12. Export: To be seen in July.
    
13. The market is forming a retest of the Jun 20 high and so far, it is a lower high.
    
14. The bulls need to do more to show they are back in control by creating follow-through buying trading above the Jun 20 high for a sustained move higher.
    
15. If the market continues to stall around or below the Jun 20 high, the odds of a double top bear flag (with Jun 20) will increase.
    
16. Since Friday was a bear bar closing near its low, it is a sell signal bar for Monday.
    
17. For tomorrow (Monday, Jul 7), traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear entry bar.
    
18. Or will the market trade slightly lower but close with a long tail below or with a bull body instead? If this is the case, it could indicate the bears are not yet strong.
    

Andrew