30/6/25 Monday to Influence Monthly Candlestick Close

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Jun 26) was a bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create more follow-through selling, or if the market would form a pullback higher instead.
   
3. The market attempted twice to create follow-through selling intraday, but the moves lacked follow-through selling. The market closed higher for the day in relatively low momentum trading.
   
4. The bulls hope the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support. So far, the market is holding around this area.
   
5. They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
6. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bears want the spike up to form a major lower high (vs April). So far, this is the case.
   
8. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
   
9. If the market trades higher, they want the follow-through buying to be weak, with overlapping candlesticks, and long tails above candlesticks. They want it to form a lower high vs Jun 20.
   
10. They must create follow-through selling trading below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a resumption of the broad bear channel.
    
11. Production for June should be more or less around May's level. July should be more or less around June's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: Looks decent in the first 25 days +6%
    
14. For tomorrow (Monday, Jun 30), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high. If they can, the June monthly candlestick will close with a bigger bull body, which may increase the odds of July trading at least slightly higher.
    
15. Or will the market trade lower, creating a more neutral or slightly bearish June monthly candlestick instead?
    

Andrew