13/6/25 Can Bears Create Bear Bars or Stall Again?

1. Thursday’s candlestick (Jun 12) was a doji bar closing in its lower half with a long tail below.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create another follow-through bear bar, or if the market would stall and form a bull bar trading above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead. Poor follow-through and frequent reversals are hallmarks of trading ranges.
   
3. The market stalled and traded above Wednesday's high, but reversed again to close as a doji bar (unchanged).
   
4. The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and Jun 3) and a double top bear flag (May 14 and Jun 3). They see another smaller wedge bear flag (May 29, Jun 3, and Jun 9).
   
5. They see Thursday as a pullback and want another leg down breaking below Jun 11 low.
   
6. They must continue to create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a strong leg down.
   
7. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and Jun 11).
   
8. They want the market to reverse above the 20-day EMA and the current bear leg to have poor follow-through selling.
   
9. The market tested the 20-day EMA today but the follow-through buying was limited. The bulls need to create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
10. If the market trades lower, they want the June 11 or June 10 lows to act as support.
    
11. Production for June should be more or less around May's level. It could be slightly lower even. Sppoma's first 10 days are down -16%, but could be due to the Hari Raya Haji holiday.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: Looks strong in the first 10 days +25-30%
    
14. For tomorrow (Friday, Jun 13), traders will see if the bears can create another follow-through bear bar.
    
15. Or will the market stall again and form a bull bar trading above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead?
    
16. The market has been in a trading range in the last 22 trading days. Traders could Buy Low, and Sell High within the trading range until there is a strong breakout from either direction.
    

Andrew