- Friday’s candlestick (Jul 18) was a big bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
- In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could close the day's candlestick near its high, or if the daily candlestick would close with a long tail above or below the middle of its range instead.
- The market broke above the bear trend line and the July 14 high. The market did not close near its high, indicating some profit-taking activity.
- The bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 18).
- They want a retest of the April high.
- The bulls need to create sustained follow-through buying following the breakout above the bear trend line to increase the odds of a sustained move.
- The bears want a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 18) and a trend channel line overshoot. They want a major lower high vs the April high.
- They hope that the recent 8-day small trading range will be the final flag of the move.
- They want the market to reverse below the bear trend line and the July 14 high within 5 trading days.
- If the market trades higher, they want it to form a double top bear flag with the April high.
- They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
- Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher.
- Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
- Export: Down 6% in the first 15 days.
- So far, the bulls created a breakout above the 8-day small trading range in Thursday night's session.
- The buying pressure is currently stronger than the selling pressure (no follow-through selling).
- For tomorrow (Monday, Jul 21), traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying.
- Or will the follow-through buying over the next 1-2 days be limited? If this is the case, it can indicate that the bulls are not as strong as they had hoped.
Andrew
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