15/7/25 Bulls Need Strong FT Buying Above Bear Trendline

1. Monday’s candlestick (Jul 14) was a bull bar closing near its high around the bear trend line area.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a retest of the July 11 high or if the market would trade sideways and stall around the bear trend line area (4230-50) in the next few days instead.
   
3. The market traded higher to test the July 11 high, closing slightly below Friday's high.
   
4. The bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 14).
   
5. They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area. The market tested the 4245 today.
   
6. The bulls need to create a strong breakout above the bear trend line with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
   
7. The bears want a higher high major trend reversal and a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 14).
   
8. They want a major lower high vs the April high.
   
9. They hope the bear trend line will act as resistance. They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
   
10. Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher.
    
11. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
12. Export: The data is mixed, and the outcome remains to be seen—estimates down 6% in the first 15 days.
    
13. So far, the follow-through selling by the bears is still limited. The buying pressure is stronger.
    
14. For now, traders will see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying, or if the move will start to stall around the bear trend line area.
    
15. For tomorrow (Tuesday, Jul 15), traders will see if the bulls can create a strong breakout above the bear trend line.
    
16. Or will the market trade sideways and stall around the bear trend line area (4250-70) in the next few days instead?
    

Andrew