24/6/25 Profit Taking, Bears Need FT Selling

1. Monday’s candlestick (Jun 23) was an inside bull bar closing near its high.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong breakout above the 4150 with sustained follow-through buying, or if the market would stall around the 4150 area followed by more profit-taking activity instead.
   
3. The market traded sideways for the day and there was no breakout above 4150.
   
4. Recently, the bulls got a measured move based on the height of the recent small trading range to the 4150 area.
   
5. The next target for the bulls is the 4200-50 area.
   
6. They must create a strong breakout above the Jun 17 high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move towards the 4200-50 area.
   
7. The market is forming a pullback in the night session. If there is a deep pullback, the bulls want the 3980 breakout point area to act as support.
   
8. The bears want the current move to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range.
   
9. They got a breakout below Monday's inside bar during the night session.
   
10. They must create a strong bear bar on Tuesday with follow-through selling on Wednesday to show they are back in control.
    
11. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: Looks strong in the first 20 days +10%
    
14. For tomorrow (Tuesday, Jun 24), traders will see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling following the sell-off in the night session.
    
15. Or will the market trade lower but find support around the 4030-50 area instead?
    

Andrew