26/6/25 More FT Selling or Pullback higher?

1. Wednesday’s candlestick (Jun 24) was a bear bar closing near its low with a prominent tail above.
   
2. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears could create more follow-through selling, and the move down was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down leg after a small pullback.
   
3. The market formed a small pullback in the night and morning session followed by a small sideways to down leg to retest Tuesday's low in the afternoon.
   
4. The bulls hope the top of the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support.
   
5. They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
   
6. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
   
7. The bears want the current move to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range. So far, the market is reversing lower from a lower high.
   
8. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
   
9. If the market trades higher, they want the follow-through buying to be weak, with overlapping candlesticks, and long tails above candlesticks. They want it to form a lower high vs Jun 20.
   
10. They must create follow-through selling trading below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a resumption of the broad bear channel.
    
11. Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
    
12. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
    
13. Export: Looks decent in the first 25 days +6%
    
14. The market is trading higher in the night session.
    
15. For tomorrow (Thursday, Jun 25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling.
    
16. Or will the market form a pullback higher instead?
    

Andrew